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The Debt Effect Is Not Surviving The Policy Shift
Since monetary policy depends on credit to realize any kind of “wealth effect”, debt issuance and levels are thus secondary indications of non-organic consumer or household funds availability. Rising...
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Taper Template
The Great Depression was more than a monolithic period of economic calamity. In fact, it was more like a series of crises interceded by hope and optimism. After the initial collapse from 1929-33, the...
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Taper Template Updated
There is more than a passing interest in the 1937 retrenchment or what amounted to a “depression within a depression.” Numerous large-scale similarities abound between what occurred in the middle of...
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It Is Inflation
There was a reason FDR’s administration in its first 100 days took the order it did. Contrary to some assertions, Executive Order 6102 was not a lawless expansion of executive privilege and...
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Reflation Check
There is a difference between reflation and recovery. The terms are similar and relate to the same things, but in many ways the latter requires first the former. To get to recovery, the economy must...
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Weimar Thirties Didn’t Happen Because It’s What You Don’t See
It was an absolutely mad scramble. Banking difficulties in the Fed’s sixth district, the Atlanta branch, had sparked an irresistible wave of panic which spread throughout the Eastern seaboard. By...
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Inflation, Deflation, The Historical Record of Bank Reserves
Putting some charts and data behind Friday’s extensive essay about bank reserves and inflation intended to further highlight some key parallels…The precursor event to yield caps being imposed in the...
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Curve Wars: Short Follows Long Because It’s *Never* Just One Part or One Curve
Why is the yield curve so steep up at its front? The obvious answer is “rate hikes” and while technically true this leaves out an important set of historical facts. These are that the agency...
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